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Prediction for CME (2026-08-14T05:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-14T05:09Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48075/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-08-14T05:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME was not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real-time due to a data gap which began at 2026-08-14T04:48Z. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. S10E20 with liftoff beginning at approx. 2026-08-14T04:00Z. This filament is heavily deflected to the West as it erupts as seen in SDO AIA, STEREO A EUVI and GOES SUVI 304. Field line opening, dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, STEREO A EUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-17T02:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-16T22:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-08-14 13:14
Radial velocity (km/s): 470.9
Longitude (deg): 14.7
Latitude (deg): 13.4
Half-angular width (deg): 36.0

Notes:

Lead Time: 49.83 hour(s)
Difference: 4.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2026-08-15T00:56Z

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